How To Find Good Deals As The Buyers Market Comes To An End

At some point in their lives, every home buyer in America has wondered "Is now the best time to buy a home?" In this 3-minute video, NBC's The Today Show does a good job of answering the question.

The conclusion? Yes, but not if you're going to overpay.

The Buyers Market is ending, we learn, as home prices rise across most of the country.  Pockets of opportunity remain, however, and the focused home buyer can still find a "good deal".

Some of the video's tips include:

• On what types of homes can you get the best prices
  
• What you can learn from looking in a seller's closet
  
• How to identify a desperate seller

The piece also goes negative on short sales, noting the amount of time required to buy one.  Short sales typically do take longer to close versus a "traditional" purchase, but that doesn't mean they should be avoided. 

There's plenty of bargains in the short sale arena, too.

What The Media About September's New Home Sales Report

Some days, newspaper headlines are a terrible place to get your real estate news. 

Today is one of those days.

After the September New Home Sales report showed sales volume down from August, the mainstream media jumped on the story:

• New Home Sales fall a surprising 3.6%
  
• Surprise Drop In New Home Sales
  
• Stocks slide as New Home Sales fall

But the headlines miss the point, somewhat.  Yes, home sales volume is important to housing, but it's not as important as home supply.

A deeper look at the New Home Sales data reveals an interesting comparison point:

• New home sales volume fell 3.6%
  
• The number of new homes available for sale fell 3.8%

In other words, sales outpaced supply -- a running theme this year and a positive signal for housing.

Since peaking in January 2009, the supply of newly-built homes has now dropped by 40 percent.  The average sale price is up 15% over the same period.

This is why you can't get your real estate news from the headlines.  You have to dig a little bit deeper to get the real story.

September's New Home Sales report was plenty strong.  The housing market recovery continues.

Previewing The New Good Faith Estimate

The new Good Faith Estimate makes its debut January 1, 2010.

Expanded from 1page to 3, the legislators responsible for the new Good Faith Estimate want it to be simpler for homeowners and home buyers to understand than the former version.

By most accounts, Congress will meet this goal. 

The new Good Faith Estimate includes plain-English explanations of every fee, charge, and interest payment involved in a purchase or refinance.  It also includes a section called "The Shopping Cart" in which applicants can compare lenders.

The new Good Faith Estimate is concise, too.  Using a series of "Yes/No" checkboxes on Page 1, mortgage lenders specifically note:

• The interest rate on the mortgage
  
• Whether the interest rate can change over time
  
• Whether the loan carries a prepayment penalty
  
• The length of the rate lock

Currently, this information is spread across 3 separate forms. 

Furthermore, the new Good Faith Estimate simplifies rate-and-fee comparisons, showing applicants how a lower rate can be available for a higher set of fees, and vice versa.

For all of its clarity, though, the new Good Faith Estimate still fails to address the issue of "suitability".  As in, is this the right loan for the right borrower?  That's something only a loan officer can do.

For suitable advice, talk with a loan officer who both listens to your needs and helps you plan for them.  Great terms on an unsuitable loan are often worse than "good" terms on the right one.

Home Values In 95% Of Case-Shiller Markets Are Improving Year-To-Year

For August, the Case-Shiller Index showed annual home values improving across 19 of 20 U.S. markets. It's the first time in 3-plus years that the benchmark housing index has shown such strength.

According to a Case-Shiller Index spokesperson, "The rate of annual decline in home price values continues to improve."

It's yet another sign that housing may have already bottomed.

However, just because the Case-Shiller Index shows a stabilization in home values, that doesn't necessarily make it true. This is because real estate happens on the local level and the Case-Shiller Index is more "national". It tracks data in just 20 U.S. cities.

Homeowners everywhere else are unaccounted for.

Furthermore, even within the 20 tracked Case-Shiller markets, there's no allowance for the natural sub-markets that exist. Some neighborhoods under-perform and some neighborhoods out-perform.

Case-Shiller treats them all the same.

Despite its imperfections, though, the Case-Shiller Index remains a helpful, broader measurement of U.S. real estate. Economists believe that housing led the U.S. into the recession and they believe housing will lead us out, too.

If that's true, August's Case-Shiller data is another step in the right direction.

Falling Home Supplies Mean More Multiple-Offer Situations For Buyers

The national housing supply fell to a 2-year low last month, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

At the current sales pace, existing home inventories would sell out in 7.8 months -- 30 percent faster versus November 2008.

For a 10-month window, that's a major housing supply reduction and it helps to explain why multiple-offer situations have been so common lately.

Moreover, the same report from NAR showed sales activity reaching its highest point since July 2007, too.

If you're looking for evidence that the long-standing Buyers Market is ending, this month's Existing Home Sales report might be it.

Even median sales prices -- typically dragged lower by distressed and foreclosed properties -- declined at its slowest pace in a year. The market may have turned a corner.

Home prices are rooted in the basic economics of supply and demand.

• When supply outweighs demand, home prices fall
• When supply lags demand, home price rise

Since March 2009, the market has been moving in the right direction. Low mortgage rates, ample housing supply and a first-time home buyer tax credit fueled buy-side demand so that home prices are now rising in many U.S. markets.

If home supplies stay on this path into 2010, expect home prices to rise even more.